This story and the accompanying video came from a report by CBS’s Clarissa Ward. The station broadcast them in the United States in early February. Despite a media lockdown in the troubled Middle Eastern nation, the images coming from Syria that are put out in the U.S. are playing a critical role in influencing public opinion on the conflict and are growing sentiment against Bashar al-Assad’s government.

So what then of the commensurate reports in the major Russian media outlets? Since Russia’s veto of the U.N. resolution to declare the al-Assad regime illegitimate, the Kremlin-influenced major television media has maintained a seemingly rosier portrayal of the ruling faction, despite growing voices of dissent in print and independent Russian media.

Of course, there are a number of reasons that Russian support for intervention would be problematic for Moscow. Syria is the location of Russia’s only base in the Middle East. The Assad regime buys large amounts of Russian arms. Moscow has a long-standing fear of Western hegemony. Many of these fears have translated into a more dogmatically skeptical coverage of the growing opposition and are reflected in the state-controlled broadcasts and discussions.

Just this week, U.S. television stations and newspapers covered the massacre of 47 women and children in Homs, which included images taken from videos streamed on the real time video sharing site Bambuser. While they proceeded to raise the question of intervention, Russian media was covering a vastly different angle.

Smoke bellows from the city of Homs.

This story that has circulated in the Russian press provides a useful analogy for their overall coverage.

Voice of Russia, the government’s international radio broadcasting service owned by the All-Russia State Television and Radio Company, has been promoting a story suggesting Al-Qaeda operatives are fighting with the Free Syria Army and other opposition groups.

Foreign fighters linked to the Al-Qaeda terrorist network are fighting on the side of Syria’s opposition,” the report said, attributing the information to an official of the International Crisis Group, Peter Harling. Yet, Mr. Harling’s work for the ICG has no mention whatsoever of Al-Qaeda in Syria. The Russian media report goes on to say that Arab League monitors claimed that the Syrian resistance movement comprises predominantly militants from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya and Yemen.

Russian News Agency Itar Tass has also covered the allegations. Its report read: “It is an open secret for Russia that Al-Qaeda militants are among those who are fighting on the side of the Syrian opposition.”

This coverage is part of an overall immediate and visceral mediascape in the country, according to Russian expert Mark Galeotti, who is the Academic Chair of the Center for Global Affairs at New York University and Clinical Full Professor of Global Affairs.

“If you affirm a lie routinely enough, you can defend it,” said Galeotti, who just returned from a trip to Russia to analyze the elections. He found while there that the television coverage in the country remained “ponderous and elephantine with propaganda.”

He added: “The television output [on Syria] is not so much about what is going on, but about U.S.-led pressure to ratify the U.N. resolution as it was presented. They were relating it back to Libya, where Russia felt tricked.”

This Russian media narrative also fits into the portrayal of the opposition fighters by al-Assad himself and perpetuated on Syrian State Television: they are terrorists.

“The role of the media as a propaganda instruments hasn’t changed much since Communist times,” said William Dunkerley, a media business consultant and someone who has written books on the Russian media like Medvedev’s Media Affairs. He is critical of the ability of Russian media to respond its users. “The media is generally not consumer responsive and those in charge of media don’t allow for great diversity of opinion.”

As such, it allows the Russian government to maintain its no intervention policy by keeping its major media outlets on message. Further examples can be found in the parochial Russia Today’s coverage, which in early February included allegations that attacks on Aleppo were the work of both the Free Syria Army and, as correspondent Lizzie Phelan described it, “directed from London, Tel Aviv, Paris and New York.” The examples pile up.

Media coverage becomes an idiom for politics, however. In Russia, support for President Vladimir Putin means you praise the policy on Syria and his ability to stand up to the U.S. According to Galeotti, this viewpoint is looking increasingly rural and insular as the middle class in Moscow and St. Petersburg begin to question it.

Enter the contrarian independent Russian online media. It has been more likely to criticize the country’s veto and is more closely aligned with the mainstream American media perspective. Russia’s media structure, however, does not yet allow these voices of obstruction to gain too much traction, according to Dunkerley. What’s more, the epochal political crisis and re-election of Vladimir Putin as President has also distracted much of this independent media from the troubles in Syria; they have bigger concerns.

Twitter and Facebook are still allowing for more critical discussions to take place, however. They have an advantage; whereas it is easier for the Kremlin to punish TV stations like Dozhd, which is very critical of Putin’s policy in Syria, the situation is not the same online. The ecology of Russian independent newsgathering online is such that government blocks on sites or even the use of paid cyber henchmen to guide conversation in chat rooms are easily circumvented.

More Russians are using services like Google translate to get news from outside the country as well. Russia also has the largest population of Internet users in Europe, which means these voices will only proliferate. Already, the number of blogs and websites run by people like Aleksandr Morozov or the politrash_ru live journal are examples of this. Their analysis of Syria trends away from Putin praising and toward the actual minutia of life in the country and horrors that give rise to a more focused push for intervention.

“This independent media has a wide variety and a nuanced coverage,” according to Galeotti. “People are now looking at accounts from Syria and Russia’s position is also being looked at. Ultimately it is good for Russian civil society.”

Whether a political manifestation will come quickly or not depends on whether the independent media can sustain itself and compete with the mainstream Kremlin sympathizers. The question also remains whether the Kremlin will be able to improve its ability to track and control these independent voices. And if they do, how these new media sites will respond.

https://vimeo.com/37643617

The protests are becoming increasingly sectarian with the majority Shiites taking to the streets chanting the names of other Arab nations that have forced regime change within the last twelve months – “Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain’s leaders are next.”

The violence has seen over 40 people killed, months of martial law, and even prompted the United States embassy to move to a safer neighborhood. But this isn’t the only U.S. reaction of note. The Obama administration has sided with the Bahraini government throughout the uprising: The question is why?

While President Barack Obama openly supported popular revolts across the Middle East and North Africa, he has been more reticent regarding the situation in Bahrain.

“In Bahrain, steps have been taken toward reform and accountability, but more are required,” Obama told the U.N. last year, referencing the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry’s report on the country. “And we believe the patriotism that binds Bahrainis together must be more powerful than the sectarian forces that would tear them apart.”

The lack of U.S. condemnation – the type that was seen in Libya, Egypt and now in Syria –helps keep the royal family in power as concerns about its questionable treatment of protestors grow. (Human rights organizations are becoming increasingly outspoken.) But U.S. backing means the nation of just over one million people appears certain to remain under the protracted rule of the Al Khalifa royal family.

American support manifested itself with the sale of a consignment of military equipment to the Al Khalifa monarchy on January 30 this year. Although it came with an assurance from the State Department that it would be not used against the protestors, the reality is regime change in the Gulf nation is not likely with this type of assistance.

Also of importance is the help of Sunni allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have both sent troops and supplies to help sure up the Al Khalifa leadership with the blessing of the U.S.

In turn, the case of Bahrain becomes a litmus test for defining U.S. strategy as it affects the rest of the Gulf. Its support of the monarchy speaks greatly to their ambitions and goals with other countries. Firstly, the move acknowledges Bahrain’s strategic importance to any potential military operations in the region. Iran looms large.

Toby C. Jones, a professor of Modern Middle Eastern history at Rutgers University, noted that this was part of a general lethargy concerning a revamped military policy in the region.

“There is a sense of inertia at the moment about imagining a different military strategy and it is clear that in that Bahrain strategically matters,” said Jones. “The Fifth Fleet are not going to pack their bags.”

The Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, currently has two aircraft carriers located in the country’s waters, with a third on its way. The island nation’s key position in the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians threatened to close if economic sanctions weren’t ended, becomes vital in preparations for future conflict.

The importance of the Sunni monarchy maintaining power, however, does not end at the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The move also reaffirms the unflappable U.S. support for Saudi Arabia, whose vast Sunni population has long seen a sibling in Bahrain’s ruling Sunni monarchy. Protecting the monarchy’s hold on power is seen as critical to maintaining the legitimacy of other Sunni monarchies from Saudi Arabia to Oman. Support from these countries is critical in providing a solid base in the region should tensions with Iran escalate. The U.S. maintains military bases in all of the Gulf countries with Sunni monarchies.

The problem for the U.S. is that these strategic needs mean that they must turn a blind eye to the questionable conduct of the regime. The U.S.’s lack of disapproval to the quelling of the uprisings in Bahrain can therefore be seen as part of an overall “uneven response” to the Arab Spring, according to Jones.

Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that the nuanced U.S. response indicates the futility of a blanket reaction to the Arab Spring.

“There is no one size fits all when it comes to this,” he said. “You can’t have the same strategy for Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain.

“You have to bear in mind that there is no clear side in Bahrain,” he added. “Some of the Shiite protestors have turned extremist and there are also both good and bad royals. It has never been practical to oppose either.”

The contemporary political realities would, for the time being, trump efforts to seek a common ground, according to Cordesman.

“It is extremely important for the whole network of relationships,” said Cordesman. “The U.S. military needs to be able to operate in places that don’t want them.”

This overall military strategy is clear; particularly considering Iran, but the question remains about its validity moving forward. Of course, the U.S. has a history of supporting regimes and groups that it has then gone on to find itself at war against at a later date, most famously in Afghanistan.

“The U.S. strategic position will be difficult to maintain in Bahrain, particularly when considering Bahrain’s Shiites,” said Jones. “It shows how badly misguided U.S. policy is in Bahrain. In the medium to long term, if the U.S. position is eroded it is not going to end well for anyone.”

It seems that the situation in Bahrain – for the time being at least – is beholden to the Obama administration’s plans for regional stability.

A report looking into the commercial viability of transparent electronics provides a very positive assessment of its opportunities within the solar industry, including predictions of in excess of 1,000 percent growth in some areas. It additionally identifies the key players to watch.

NanoMarkets predicts that the market for transparent electronics will grow exponentially over the coming years. Revenues are expected to reach US$325 million (€251 million) in 2015, going on to reach $1.1 billion (€850 million) in 2019. A large portion of this overall market will come from interventions by solar companies.

According to the report, the transparent electronics market has the potential to become a strong revenue stream as its use within solar products grows, particularly as it relates to building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV).

“The solar panel industry will be desperately seeking ways to improve its economics,” the report says, positing BIPV as a prime example of how this can happen. “BIPV is a product design strategy that integrates PV panels with other building materials. By doing so, the shared cost of the substrate can significantly reduce the total cost compared with buying the roofing or siding plus the PV panel separately.”

In one forecast, the study says the market value for absorber layer materials for transparent solar panels will rise sharply by 2020.

The analysts foresee a total market value of $77.2 million (€59 million) in 2012, $226.6 million (€175 million) in 2015 and all the way up to $784.7 million (€606 million) in 2019 – an overall growth of more than 1,000 percent.

The report further suggests that there is enough of a market in transparent electronics to benefit established specialty chemical firms, as well as having room for start-ups.

Major boost

NanoMarkets concedes that the worst is yet to come for the solar industry, but suggests that new market opportunities in BIPV via transparent electronics could provide the major boost the industry needs to stave off the effects of the current economic slowdown and less than favorable tariff structures. The company adds that organic photovoltaics (OPV) could be greatly benefited by transparent electronics, particularly in the BIPV sphere.

“While NanoMarkets does not believe that transparent BIPV is the killer app that OPV has long sought,” it says, “this is one niche were OPV would appear to have an inherent competitive advantage.

“Transparent BIPV today is not really a materials play, but we would expect it to be much more about materials going forward; with the ultimate goal being the development of PV absorber layers that are inherently transparent.”

They company also noticed that while organic electronics often use transparent materials, no companies have yet focused on transparency as a major goal, which may also provide further opportunities in the space.

Areas of opportunity and setbacks

The report identifies that with research and development in oxide electronics, transparent organic electronics and transparent nanoelectrics, the developments could greatly influence the path of solar panels as the technology improves.

“We see the transparent electronics space evolving and we note here that the optically active materials that will be used in smart windows and solar panels will also evolve in sophistication and performance,” the report explains.

It also says there will be a marketplace for the technology in both the automotive and military markets, which are both potentially huge revenue streams for the solar industry.

The paper does point out, however, that being “transparent” in the photovoltaics sector is not what it means to other industries.

“While in the case of the other sectors that we have reviewed in this article,” the report says, “‘transparent’ really means transparent, in the PV sector it means something less than that.”

It continues, “The point here is that no material can be both completely absorbent and transparent; so there is always a tradeoff.”

NanoMarkets sets a general transparency target for commercial BIPV glass at around 50 percent. This is a figure that lets in most of the current thin film photovoltaic materials, which, if made thin enough, can be at least considered translucent. In addition, since novel transparent materials for photovoltaic absorbers do not have to be that transparent, the bar is lowered a little in terms of product development.

On the practicalities of the technology, much of the work in the field has focused on using semiconductor materials based on metal oxides of various kinds, citing technological developments that have given the field increased credibility recently.

“Although the semiconducting transparent oxide class of materials, as yet, lacks truly useful p-type semiconductors, functioning devices have been built using n-type oxide semiconductors,” the report says. “Indeed, there can be little doubt that the whole area of transparent electronics received a considerable boost in credibility in the early 2000s from a number of research devices (TFTs) that were built using (mostly) ZnO as a semiconductor.”

Who to watch

According to the report, one large company to watch in this space is 3M, which has a broad patent portfolio covering transparent conducting oxides and is a recognized leader in this field.

Another that has made an impact is Kurt J. Lesker, which has reported to NanoMarkets in the past that its materials group has been able to identify 17 novel transparent conducting oxides which it believes have the potential to eventually make a commercial impact.

Saint-Gobain was further highlighted as a potential future player. “Saint-Gobain has not specifically identified transparent electronics as a target market, but seems to be creeping into this space and is well positioned for further growth in the future,” states the report.

The photovoltaics industry is going through some major changes. A still deteriorating global economic situation, government belt-tightening and a number of corporate incidents have left the industry in an unfamiliar, unhealthy state at the end of 2011. With the end of the year fast approaching, it is time for a change.

Overcapacities, in particular, will present many companies with significant problems, as will theSolarWorld trade case and continuing falling prices.
Increasing diversification and the proliferation of market penetration, consolidation and fast-approaching grid parity are the major upsides that will allow photovoltaics the opportunity to eventually emerge from the very real challenges it is currently facing.

“2011 was a devastating year,” Matthias Fawer, director of sustainable investment at Bank Sarasin, tells pv magazine. “Except for one short period at first. There was a big boom and high expectations, but by the end of April that was all gone. After April everything went down.”

Compared to the 170 percent growth rate for new photovoltaic installations in 2010, 2011 was not as strong for the industry. Newly added capacity in 2011 is estimated to have reached 23.8 gigawatts (GW), up 34 percent from 17.7 GW in 2010. But 2012 is not expected to see as much growth. Predictions from Sarasin say that the year should see around 25 GW installed. Sam Wilkinson, a photovoltaics research analyst for IMS Research, also tells pv magazine that they expect installations to remain flat in 2012.

The January FIT cuts in Germany, the expected expiry of cash grants in the U.S., and tariff cuts in places like Australia and Taiwan will all also contribute towards keeping the market flat. Subsidy decisions in some of the larger European markets like Italy and Greece could also have a detrimental impact, with the Eurozone crisis and austerity measures expected to lead to major cuts in 2012.

Fawer defines these main issues that will lead to a sluggish year in 2012 as a lack of elasticity in demand and a tremendous drop in investment. But he said that the photovoltaics market was still an attractive one.

Overall, new sales markets and additional applications for solar energy mean that newly installed photovoltaic capacity is predicted to rise by an annual average of 18 percent up to 2015.

Shifting markets

One of the key developments in 2012 will be the diversification of the marketplace. Although emerging markets such as those in the Middle East and North Africa, Asia and even the United States have been on the rise for a while, next year they will become more important.

According to IMS’ Wilkinson, growth around the world of 43 percent will offset the major declines expected within the European market, which is only predicted to grow six percent in 2012.

This shifting marketplace will also help drive overall market growth, as demand from countries like India and China start to have a real value effect on the market. Bigger companies will also look to have major operations in all three of the key European markets, Asia and the United States.

“2012 will have a huge change in terms of market shift and increase,” says Fawer. “The old money in Germany, Italy, Spain and France is still important in terms of absolute figures, but the new markets of the U.S., China and India, and emerging markets will be tremendous.”

IMS Research further predicts that demand from Germany and Italy alone will fall by three GW in 2012, and Europe’s share of global demand will fall from its levels of 80 percent in 2010, to 56 percent in 2012.

Sarasin forecasts that more than 10 photovoltaics markets will achieve an annual installed capacity of 500 megawatts (MW) by 2013, signaling the emergence of a much more diverse industry. As a result, many of the larger companies are looking to realign their strategies to more sustainable development, rather than the current model of chasing government subsidies.

Like the majority of its peers, First Solar announced recently that it would be following this shift in the marketplace and putting more emphasis on these emerging markets. “We will shift revenue from subsidy to sustainable markets beginning in 2012,” said chairman and interim CEO, Mike Ahearn during a recent telephone press conference. “We will be targeting markets that are underserved and growing at a macro level.”

While there is a big shift away from Europe, within the continent there were also some rumblings. After years as the world’s biggest photovoltaic installer, Germany is being deposed by Italy, according to various sources, such as IHS iSuppli and Italian electricity regulator, GSE, largely due to more favorable government subsidies.

According to the most recent figures, Italy has installed 6.9 GW of photovoltaics in 2011, followed by Germany, at 5.9 GW. The U.S. is said to place third, at 2.7 GW, while China has installed 1.7 GW, Japan 1.3 GW and France 963 MW.

Italy, under new leader Mario Monti, shows no real sign of slowing down in 2012 either, despite the projected subsidy cuts. The country’s renewable-energy regulator approved 507 commercial and utility-scale solar plants, or about one in every six projects seeking permits for the first half of the year.

Corporate ups and downs

In terms of the corporate side of the industry, this year saw market conditions adversely affect a number of industry heavyweights. A number of major U.S. solar companies declared bankruptcy, including Solyndra LLC, which received $535 million in government loan guarantees, Evergreen Solar, Beacon Power and SpectraWatt.Arise Germany, Solar Millennium and Solon have also recently filed for insolvency. Meanwhile, a plethora of production cutbacks and redundancies have been announced by such companies as SolarWorld, PV Crystalox, Day4 Energy, SunLink, Conergy andREC.

“More companies are bound to fail in view of the enormous surplus capacities,” says Bank Sarasin. “This is not particularly surprising given a solar value chain that includes roughly 250 wafer producers, just as many cell manufacturers, and more than 400 module producers.”

Overall, Fawer expects 2012 to be a successful year for larger companies like General Electric, Shell and Solar Frontier, which are all developing a burgeoning solar portfolio and making sure they remain financially viable in the post-subsidy market. Companies like China’s Suntech Power, Trina Solar and Yingli Solar will emerge triumphant, as will U.S.-based First Solar and SunPower, and Germany’s SolarWorld.

Meanwhile, those companies which are “small”, “uncompetitive” and “inadequately financed” will be pulled under. The companies it believes to be most under threat are small to medium in size, and with “comparatively modest growth prospects, such as Germany’s Conergy, Q-Cells, Solar-Fabrik and Sunways.”

“While market share growth was the predominant corporate strategy at the beginning of the year, companies must now improve their financial viability, or they risk not being able to participate in the strong growth expected by grid parity now being established in key markets,” says Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz. This view is also backed up by Bank Sarasin and HF Bank’s Goetz Fischbeck, who, following the 12 Forum Solarpraxis, wrote that due to the “excessive” production capacities across the entire photovoltaic manufacturing chain, the key to survival will be a strong balance sheet and adequate financing over the next two years.

Trade war

The SolarWorld Trade Case has also cast an ominous shadow on how big companies are dealing with the shifting of supply lines to China, and will really come to the fore in 2012.

Andrew Beebe, chief commercial officer at Suntech, tells pv magazine that much of 2012’s direction for the big companies rests on the SolarWorld trade case. “A global solar trade war will increase the price of solar products, from silicon and capital equipment to cells and modules,” said Beebe. “Trade barriers would act like a tax on solar electricity and therefore limit the growth of demand, particularly in highly-elastic markets on the cusp of grid parity.”

Despite the United States’ International Trade Commission’s unanimous ruling that the importation of cheaper products from China harmed U.S. retailers, it may prove to be only a minor victory for SolarWorld and other U.S. companies. Being able to deal with the flooded marketplace is an issue that will remain.

Both the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy (CASE) and the Coalition for American Solar Manufacturers (CASM) exclusively presented their arguments on the trade dispute to pv magazine. While Gordon Brinser, president of SolarWorld Industries America Inc. says he is fighting for an all American vision, Jigar Shah, co-founder of the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy and the founder of SunEdison, argues that if successful, SolarWorld’s survival will come at the expense of the U.S. solar industry.

The trade case has caused ripples across the world, with many adding their thoughts to the debate. The latest word on the street is that India may also be looking to instigate its own trade case against both China and the U.S., and China has said that it islaunching an inquiry into U.S. renewable energy imports. 2012 will be an interesting year in terms of who will rule the day.

Overcapacity

For many companies, the major downturn expected will provide the sternest test in many years. And one of the major stumbling blocks in 2012 will be dealing with overcapacity. “2012 will be the year of truth for a lot of companies,” comments Sarasin’s Fawer. “The biggest danger will come from overcapacities.” While solar module producers are already in a precarious position, he says that companies operating downstream in 2012 would have a particular issue in dealing with the overcapacity that marred 2011.

Massive capacity increases are still occurring and if all of them are realized, the worldwide production capacity or solar cells would exceed 80 GW at the end of 2012, according to a report by the European Commission’s Institute for Energy.

“Leading into 2012, the industry is braced for another challenging year,” says Solarbuzz in a report looking to next year. “Manufacturers are preparing to raise cell capacity by 50 percent over 2011 levels, while end-market demand is forecast to increase by less than half that level.”

This tremendous overcapacity, unless dealt with early in the New Year, will see a number of other companies shutting their operations down. “Producers – both solar cell and module producers – cannot keep up that rate. They will have to file for Chapter 11 [bankruptcy],” says Sarasin’s Fawer.

In a similar vein to oversupply, another factor moving forward, according to larger companies like First Solar, is how to deal with the proliferation of smaller companies that are delivering this oversupply. As entry barriers drop and good technology becomes easier to produce, a number of start-ups are emerging to compete with the larger companies.

Furthermore, the polysilicon supply chain structure has changed markedly and will become a real issue in 2012. As volumes usurp demands, only the most resilient producers will be able to stay in operation next year.

Bank Sarasin states in its recent report, ‘Solar industry: Survival of the fittest in a fiercely competitive marketplace’, that two major changes have occurred in the polysilicon sphere. Firstly, photovoltaics now represents its main customer, having “comfortably” outstripped the semiconductor industry. Secondly, on the back of cell manufacturers’ attempts to raise efficiencies, silicon purity is becoming increasingly pertinent.

The report also found that more than half of the world’s polysilicon production comes from the U.S. and China. Based on the bank’s latest figures, which show an overview of market share in 2010, at 22.4 percent U.S. company Hemlock constitutes the biggest polysilicon player. It is followed closely by Germany’s Wacker Chemie, which holds 19.8 percent of the market, Korean-based OCI, with 8.9 percent, and China’s GCL-Poly with 8.7 percent.

These four producers currently comprise 60 percent of the market. However, according to Sarasin, their share is expected to jump to 70 percent in the coming years. Even in light of the overcapacity in the solar industry, it believes they will not experience sales problems, due to both their cost and quality advantages.

However, Ahearn from First Solar, believes that, “In an industry without entry barriers, which we believe is now the case for the polysilicon PV module industry, the easy reentry of competitors and the expansion of capacity will keep downward pressure on prices and margins indefinitely.”

For Sam Wilkinson of IMS Research, the oversupply and “unsustainably low” prices, will mean 2012 will be tough for many companies to outlast. “2012 will undoubtedly be a year of consolidation,” he says, “with many companies unable to last the difficult period that will continue into 2012.

“The companies that are likely to survive are those that have established strong brands, have strong balance sheets and that are able to control their cost structure over the next few quarters. Those that have positioned themselves well in emerging markets are also better placed.”

Pricing and technology

One of the major effects of oversupply is the rapid drop in pricing and the market reaction to this in early 2012 will be key. “2011 was characterized by rapid capacity growth combined with weaker than expected demand in some key countries,” continues Wilkinson. “This led to a severe over supply of products throughout the supply chain which has forced prices down significantly throughout the year.”

2011 had the largest number of price reductions of any year during the last decade. There were 1,159 reductions in total.

Those price cuts have begun to stimulate demand, however. The analyst firm Solarbuzz is predicting a further 18 percent module price decline in the closing quarter of 2011 – something that will also have an effect on thin film solar module prices as rival photovoltaics technologies compete with silicon modules. The drop in prices has resulted in slashed margins for companies and 2012 is likely to see that trend continue.

There are already cases in Europe of modules selling for less than €0.80 per watt (/W), while in China, prices have been as low as  €0.70/W, according to Sarasin. Overall, module prices are forecast to reach €0.65/W in March 2012, according to IHS. “Prices are dropping so quickly,” says Sarasin’s Fawer. “All this means that competitiveness for modules will go up next year.”

The weak demand in Europe will lead to further price battles in 2012 and companies will need to consolidate their revenue streams to deal with this emerging trend in the industry. While some companies may struggle with these new revenues as prices drop, those not able to match the drops in 2012 will be fighting to survive.

In terms of what this means for technology sales, the New Year shouldn’t hold too many surprises. “The huge supply of attractively priced c-Si modules means that crystalline will continue to hold a majority share of the market,” explains Wilkinson of IMS Research. “First Solar and its low-cost CdTe technology is also well placed. Other thin film technologies that are not able to achieve significant cost reductions are likely to struggle in the tough conditions that 2012 will bring.”

According to Beebe from Suntech, a potential stabilizing of prices in mid-2012 would bring about major benefits for the industry. “We expect that price stability will encourage customers to develop project pipelines quickly and stimulate a renewed wave of solar demand beginning in mid-2012,” he tells pv magazine.

The price of polysilicon dropping below US$30 per kilogram, perhaps somewhat indefinitely, means crystalline silicon technology will be an increasingly attractive option moving forward.

Storage technologies are additionally expected to play a bigger role in the New Year. A report from Pike Research from earlier in the year predicted that photovoltaic and wind energy production will be the main driver for US$122 billion in investment in energy storage projects over the next decade.

Suntech, meanwhile, sees a burgeoning utility sector as having a greater sway for larger companies in 2012. “The utility segment will grow by leaps and bounds,” says Beebe, “driven by greatly improved project economics. In some cases, utility installations are now projected to deliver electricity over 25 years at less than US$0.10 per kilowatt hour, without government subsidies.”

A report by Solarbuzz, however, predicts that equipment suppliers from the crystalline-silicon wafer, cell and module expansions of 2011 will be hit the hardest in 2012. The worst hit will see their year-on-year revenues fall from between 30 and 79 percent in 2012.

Moving forward without subsidies

The impact of government regulation will again play a critical role in the proliferation of the industry during 2012. “This year saw quite a break,” says Fawer. “There was a slowing down in the market due to cuts in subsidies and FITs.” As such, many larger companies are now talking about operating in a post-subsidy marketplace.

The cuts made to feed-in tariffs in a number of countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia and France, Italy, the U.K., and Germany have continued in 2011 and will likely be compounded by big subsidy reductions in 2012, primarily expected in countries like Greece and Italy. “Overall we are confident of a broader fundamental level,” continues Fawer, adding, “The whole industry will be less sensitive to FITs.” With little government help, an increase in demand and falling module prices mean that solar will only be “close to competitive in 2012.”

How the industry deals with these issues in 2012 will dictate its success. As Wilkinson concludes, “2011 will end with low utilization, and almost zero profits.” It will be the challenge for 2012 to turn this around as quickly as possible, but it will remain a challenging year for the industry.

As you approach the building, it begins to make more sense. Beneath the big, green pyramid are high sandstone walls decorated with barbed wire. Inside, through the metal detector and past a couple of guards is the prisoner meeting room, a large space with some tables and chairs, a few vending machines and yellow lines on the floor that tell prisoners where they can and can’t step. Children run around while their parents talk, a couple holds hands at one table and a pastor studies the Bible with an inmate at another. Still another inmate stands alone in the room wearing prison garb, a doo-rag over the dreadlocks he is growing for charity, and a cheeky grin.

His name is Curtis Tucker III.

Arrested at his cousin’s wedding in Coney Island in November 1988 at age 23, Tucker was convicted of being an accomplice in the murder of a friend and has been in prison ever since.

He has also maintained his innocence the entire time.

But Tucker, now 47, isn’t the only character in this story. This is also the story of his mother, Janice Tucker, who lives in Bushwick Houses and visits her son as often as she can. It’s the story of Nawanna Snipe, his ex-girlfriend, who took a course in criminal justice and administration with the University of Phoenix in 2009 in hopes of helping him. And of retired city police Sgt. Derek Brown, now a private investigator with Brooklyn Defender Services, who also grew up in Bushwick Houses and offers his help free of charge to the family to help exonerate a kid he used to play ball with on the basketball courts off Moore Street. It’s the story of their fight, now entering its 24^th year.

“I haven’t seen the likes of this in quite some time,” Gregory Rheubottom, a Harlem paralegal, said of the group’s dedication. He has known the family for two decades and he, too, is helping them with the case: “Because of their fight, because they fight, I fight with them.”

So do others in the Bushwick Houses community, where Tucker grew up. More than 400 people, mostly from the development, have signed a petition which is continuously being sent to politicians and lawmakers in an attempt to have them review the case. And the Rev. Reggie Bacchus, pastor of Mount Ollie Baptist Church – which Janice Tucker attends – is holding a forum on Nov. 11 to see how the church can help.

“Bushwick taught me family values,” said Tucker from the visiting room at Eastern Correctional. “It taught you that you can go to anybody’s house to eat. There is a togetherness in the projects.”

It is this togetherness that is keeping his fight alive.

*  *  *

When Curtis Tucker III was a kid, his uncle dubbed him “Lep” – short for “Leprechaun” – because he was little and his ears stuck out.

He grew up in Bushwick Houses during the 1970s and ’80s. He owned and went on to run a club on Fulton Street in Brooklyn called “Cat’s Paradise” as well as disc jockeying around town. He was also, by most accounts, quite popular with the ladies.

That’s not to say he didn’t make mistakes. As drugs flooded the streets of Brooklyn in the 1980s, he freely admits, he – like so many others in that neighborhood – found himself wading through the crack epidemic as a drug-dealer, looking to make fast money. This earned him a related weapons conviction, though he didn’t serve any time for it.

“I wasn’t a good guy. I did things wrong. At first I thought I was being punished for that, on God’s own terms,” he said.

“I sold that s—. I messed up whole neighborhoods. And maybe I did need to go away to become what I am.”

But the irony, he insists, is that when he finally did end up in prison, it was for the one crime he didn’t commit.

It was June 20, 1988, and he was heading to a friend’s house to hang out. Out the front of the house he saw Kevin Turner, whose sister he was “seeing” at the time.

They arrived at 684 Monroe St. in Brooklyn at around the same time as a group of acquaintances including two guys named David Smith and Lawrence Moses. The conversation jumped from the New York Knicks, to a cute girl from Manhattan, to Tucker’s club. They also spoke about jail after seeing a news report on the television, Tucker recalled.

Soon, a phone call came through from a guy named Ronnie “Poop” Blackett. He and Tucker had grown up together in Bushwick Houses, their parents took turns looking after them, and they played in the same playpen and on the same basketball courts. Poop, hearing that Lep was there, said he would come over right away.

But when he got there, the conversation changed, Smith would testify later. It turned to money.

When the phone rang again, Smith answered it. But the line was not good, he testified. He hung up, turned around – and he found himself staring down the barrel of a gun.

Turner shot him in the side of the face, then turned and shot Moses and Blackett dead.

“I just jumped up and ran to the back door to get away,” Tucker said recently, describing his own reaction that night.  “There was a shot guy next to me, so I just ran to the kitchen, but the back door was locked.”

Smith, badly injured but still alive, played dead. He would later testify that he remembered Turner yelling and Tucker running for the back door.

“Maybe I should have been killed or shot,” Tucker would say later in court. “Then maybe I wouldn’t have been here today, facing a serious sentence for a crime I didn’t commit.”

After the incident, Tucker said, he went to his club and sat, shaken, with a bottle of Bacardi. He had just seen his childhood friend shot and murdered. He didn’t call police, because, he said, that was the code of the streets, but that doesn’t mean that he wasn’t affected.

“I remember him shaking, nervous, scared,” said Janice Tucker who saw him when he arrived home a little while later. “Not the type of boy that just shot someone. Then Kevin Turner came and he said, ‘I just shot Poop.’ He was bragging about it.”

Today, Turner is serving 100 years for the homicides that occurred that evening. Tucker was offered a deal to confess; ironically, had he taken it, he would have been out of prison now. But Tucker never shied away from defending his innocence. He pleaded not guilty, but was convicted by a jury.

The presiding state Supreme Court justice read out the sentence in small bursts:

Robbery and assault…10 to 20 years.

Accessory to murder…15 years to life.

And again, accessory to murder…15 years to life.

After the sentence was read, Curtis Tucker recalls being led away by officers and then simply lying on the floor in the holding cell, looking at the ceiling.

“I was numb. I couldn’t believe I was convicted for something I didn’t do. I was gone. I was there, but not there.”

As of this year, he has spent more of his life in prison than he has outside of it.

*  *  *

New York City Police Sgt. Derek Brown first heard that Tucker was wanted for a double homicide in 1988 when he saw a picture of his old friend on a bulletin board at the precinct where he was then assigned.

“I tore it down,” said Brown, now retired from the NYPD. “I just knew this was not something that Curtis would do. I went to talk to my superiors.”

Brown didn’t hear anything more about the case until 2009, when one of Tucker’s cousins told him about it at a family gathering.

By now, Brown was working as an investigator at a non-profit called Brooklyn Defender Services that serves the needs of the indigent community in Brooklyn. He offered to help for no charge, and is trying to track down the only witness Smith, to see if he will testify again.

“Curtis is still my man,” said Brown. “Not every case you see is 23 years old. There are flaws in the process…He wouldn’t get convicted if the trial was held today.”

His mother also worries that these flaws helped to convict her son.

“No jury ever heard the other side of the story,” she said.

Janice Tucker often makes the trip up to Eastern Correctional Facility to stay overnight in one of the on site trailers, where she can cook and spend time with her son. She says being there is more relaxing than being at Bushwick – like a “little holiday.”

“You will never see a more dedicated mother than Janice,” said Rheubottom, the Harlem paralegal, saying that such devotion is unusual when someone has been in prison so long. “I’ve seen mothers last only two years before they stop sending letters and packets.”

Even more striking is the dedication of Nawanna Snipe, Curtis Tucker’s former girlfriend, who will often head north to talk to Tucker about the case, something she is doing more regularly after finding what she says are a number of anomalies in the trial notes.

Among them:

In testimony, Smith changed details, saying at one point he felt someone take money from his pocket four minutes after Turner yelled instructions to do so, then later saying it was only one and a half minutes.

The prosecutor admitted in his summation that the only witness in the trial, Smith, said, “without equivocation, he didn’t know what part Curtis Tucker played in this incident.”

Snipe is most curious about the role of the judge, however, in relation to the main witness Smith, who was called as a material witness and arrested to testify in the court. The judge said at the time, “I don’t believe the witness was held in custody. Not by me.” But Snipe has a copy of a material witness order that is clearly signed by the judge.

But there’s more:

The floor plan of the room where the murders took place, as entered into evidence, was not the way Tucker described it – he said was sitting in a different place.

Early on in the trial, referring to his previous firearms conviction, the judge described Tucker as a “professional armed felon,” which doesn’t sit well with the family.

With their concerns and Tucker insisting on his innocence, they appealed the case in 1994, with no luck. In 2000, Tucker started saving money and working on his case himself with a view to another appeal. In 2006 Snipe started helping more and soon after started her law-school correspondence course.

The family has also tried to contact Turner, who will spend his life in prison, to see if he will provide testimony to exonerate Tucker. So far he has been unwilling to cooperate.

 *  *  *

The only times Curtis Tucker has been back to Bushwick in the last 23 years have been at the funerals of his father and two aunts. He arrived in shackles and accompanied by two guards. He hadn’t been in a car for so long that he got motion sick on the drive down to the city. And that wasn’t the worst part.

“I can see the hurt in my loved ones, and not just for the one in the casket, but for the one in shackles,” said Tucker.

From prison, Tucker still sends Christmas and birthday cards back to residents of Bushwick. He paints and draws, and designs the logos for family reunions. He finds he really enjoys writing poetry (he normally writes about things like love, he says). He also reads a lot. (He just finished “The Mastery of Love” by Don Miguel Ruiz.)

He helped to raise funds for the victims of the Haitian Earthquake and families of 9/11. He plays for the prison football team. But mostly he tries to be involved in the lives of his family, especially his two children.

His son, Curtis Tucker IV, who was a toddler when his father was arrested, didn’t learn until he was 11 where his father really was. Before that he was told his father was “at college.”

Now 25, the young Tucker, who family members say looks like his father at the same age, is himself studying business management at La Guardia Community College. He is also trying to break in to the world of DJing, just like his father. After recently traveling to Dubai, he thought a good combination of the two would be to try to be a professional DJ and party planner in Dubai. (He likes the slogan “From Bed-Stuy to Dubai.”)

That is not to say there haven’t been tough moments.

Curtis IV recalls crying at church as a boy when there was a father-son event; the DJ played Will Smith’s “Just the Two of Us,” and he sat there alone looking at all the other boys with their fathers.

“It always hurt, but I just knew I couldn’t keep crying,” he said. “I had no one to turn to, but the past helps spur me on.”

That, plus his father’s continued involvement.

“We still speak as much as we can,” said Curtis IV, who recalls having the seminal chat about the birds and the bees on one prison visit. “He is always there for me. I know some fathers that give up, but he never gave up.”

For Curtis Tucker Sr., growing up Bushwick was an important part of learning the values that have seen him still supported by so much of that community.

“I’m feeling great,” he said from the table in the Eastern Correctional visiting room, the specks of gray in his goatee hinting at the passage of the years. “I preach this a lot. When we think positive, positive things happen. When we think negative, then negative things happen. You have to stay positive at all times.

“Just because we are in prison doesn’t mean we can’t be a part of their life. I’m proud of where I came from.

“But I have been in here for 23 years for something I didn’t do.”

Unless his family and friends are successful in their fight, he won’t leave Eastern Correctional Facility as a free man until at least Halloween 2023.

But there is an elegance and attractiveness about the crumbling building that make it in some ways more beautiful, and in many ways more interesting, than the structures that stare across at it. It is in its abandonment and in its dilapidation that the Smallpox Hospital on Roosevelt Island has found a great and unique new role that seems to be emerging in many cities.

Opened in 1856, the hospital on the southern tip of the island was once one of many public institutions built to care for New York City’s unfortunate and destitute. It was designed by architect James Renwick Jr., who also designed St. Patrick’s Cathedral on Fifth Avenue. When it was used to house those suffering from smallpox, the lower floors of the hospital were used for charity cases and the paying inpatients would stay in private rooms on the upper floors. At its height in the late 19th Century, an annual number of 7,000 patients were treated, with an average of 450 deaths. But the patients left and so then did its purpose.

Now, the Smallpox Hospital provides its own interpretations of beauty from its purgatory that provides a welcome counterpoint to garish and grandiose new structures that grow around it.

This type of building, the urban ruin, is a critical new part of the cityscape and is developing a committed and large group of fans. Forgotten Detroit, Abandoned Berlin and Abandoned New York are all groups or people that run websites dedicated to the exploration of the forgotten and falling buildings in their cities. Photographer Ian Ference makes a living from selling photographs of abandoned buildings in New York. He also draws heavily from the work of Richard Nickel, who campaigned for the preservation of these types of buildings in the face of relentless urban renewal in Chicago.

The common reaction to crumbling buildings is to repair them, like a middle-aged person getting plastic surgery and wearing that old dress or tuxedo. But that never seems quite right. What happened to aging gracefully?

Too often these gems fall in to the hands of developers and moguls who would like nothing better than to turn them into apartments. Or better yet, apartments with walk in wardrobes. But the fact that the Smallpox Hospital has remained in limbo is a testament to its beauty and the power that this type of building can have.

The structure today is still is three-floors high, with a main central chamber and a North and South wing. Only the gray exterior and foundations remain; there is no roof, the inner walls have all crumbled and all the windows sit without panes. The building is falling in on itself and the formerly flawlessly carved stone exterior is now covered by small spray-painted jellyfish, yet it exudes peacefulness. It provides a welcome juxtaposition to the modernity around it. There is also a fantasy and mysticism about the hospital, which is best captured at night as yellow spotlights give it an eerie glow that piques your imagination. The evocative nature of these ruins is one of their most treasured characteristics.

As the building falls further into disrepair, it becomes increasingly interesting in a city that is renowned for its phallic pursuit of the sky and ravenous urban development. It stands in defiance and the city should be thankful. The abandoned Smallpox Hospital has taken on this role as a monument to times gone by. A place where the mind can wander and the gothic revival design can be appreciated.

It is not easy to be a friend of decay. Cities, it seems, are constantly looking to update and clean their wounds. The longer the cavernous skeleton of the building remains staring defiantly across the East River to Manhattan, the better. To explore these buildings is a treat.

Imagination, beauty and possibilities are the currency of their decay.